Independent global macro research · since 2005
Welcome to Global Macro Investor
Global Macro Investor, Raoul Pal’s flagship publication, was founded in 2005 and is widely considered one of the world’s pre-eminent macro research services. Highly innovative, thought-provoking and wholly independent, GMI provides high-level research and strategy to institutional investors, thought leaders and private individuals alike, helping them navigate both the opportunities and the risks that lie ahead.
GMI is unique in its focus on the big-picture, long-term trends at the investment nexus of macro, crypto and technology, where the opportunities lie. Those trends are viewed within the framework of business-cycle analysis, of which GMI is also a pioneer.
The platform — the experience
The Monthly, plus twenty-one years of archive — in a beautiful reader, the original in-issue PDFs a page-turn away.
Global M2 is making a higher high and velocity is breaking out — I’m moving 20% of the BTC allocation into the basket here… [1]
Chat twenty-one years of research. Answered in Raoul’s voice, and cited straight back to the page.
The Universal Code Series — a monthly audio essay written to be heard, read by Raoul. Listen here or in your podcast app.
Six live lenses on GMI’s frameworks and models, refreshed as the data moves.
The research
You will gain access to the world's best content
With twenty-one years of archives, this abundance of knowledge offers a masterclass in global macro — understanding the interplay of the business cycle and the major themes throughout history, then applying those patterns to the present and building frameworks for the future.
Using proprietary models and frameworks, we simplify complex themes. Seeing through the market's noise is what sets GMI apart — and has led the GMI portfolio to consistently outperform other global research services, at times exceeding our own expectations.
In short, GMI broadens your knowledge, gives you variant perspectives and insight, and provides clarity on how to navigate the opportunities and the economy.
Explore membership →
In their words
Trusted by the world's leading investors
Over the past eight years, I have had excellent interactions with Raoul Pal and the GMI team. GMI consistently offers extensive, bold, and often contrarian research — incredibly valuable in formulating market paradigms.
Without any doubt this publication is one of the top 5 must-read publications in the world for any investor making judgments about the global macro environment and financial markets.
Global Macro Investor provides institutional-level insight and research that could easily cost hundreds of thousands of dollars to replicate internally — an invaluable piece of my business.
The GMI Monthly frames early themes for us in a way I have not seen in any other periodical. Always insightful, always different.
One of the very few places one can reliably find original thought. Always well-reasoned — even in disagreement, there is value. Oh, and the conferences are fun.
Over the last 15 years, Raoul Pal's insights have been instrumental in shaping my investment decisions. GMI is indispensable to me.
The track record
Timeline of GMI
Twenty-one years of major, market-timed calls · drag to explore →
2008 Crisis
Shorted banks and bought bonds — markets fell 50%+.
Rise of Soft Commodities (2007–2008)
Bought a basket ahead of a 100%+ rise.
EU Crisis 2012
Shorted EU banks, stock indices and EU credit.
The Euro Fall (2012 to present)
Shorted the Euro vs the US Dollar at 1.48.
Rise of Bitcoin 2013
Bought Bitcoin at $200.
The Rise of India (2015 to present)
Long Indian equities.
Oil Collapse 2015
Shorted oil (fell from $130 to $30).
Oil Collapse 2020
Shorted oil (predicted it would go negative).
Slow collapse of European banks
Shorted EU banks — called since 2012.
"Buy Bonds, Wear Diamonds" (2018–2020)
Bought bonds ahead of the largest move in history.
Recession / Pandemic 2020
Bought bonds and bought bitcoin.
ETH (2020–2021)
Bought ETH ahead of an 800% rally.
Carbon Allowances 2021
Bought EU carbon futures ahead of a 100% move.
"Exponential Age" (2022 to present)
Bought technology stocks in June 2022.
SOL (2022–present)
Bought SOL before a 1000% rally.
"The Everything Code" (2023)
A cohesive thesis — over 100% returns in its first year.
The Team
Meet the team →
Raoul Pal
One of the best-known thought leaders in global macro. Raoul has written GMI since January 2005 — original, quantifiable, readable research for the world's largest funds and investors.
David Mattin
An internationally recognised expert on technology and social change, and author of the New World Same Humans newsletter. At GMI he covers the forces driving the Exponential Age.
Join us
Many of the world's most well-known asset managers, family offices, sovereign wealth funds and hedge fund managers are members of the exclusive GMI network. Once you become part of the family, you tend to stay part of the family.
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